A question

Received a message from a follower yesterday who asked:

"When you say 1pt bet if price reaches 2.4, do you take the 2.4 net of comm @ Betfair of 5% or gross of comm, assuming no books have gone to 2.4. What did Lincoln reach?"

I thought it pertinent to answer this question on the blog as after yesterday where two winners (Pboro and Lincoln) did not qualify as bets because they did not reach their target price.

Why we say this, is because the football bets are generated through a ratings style process. As a result we factor in our own 'price' with a value buffer so to speak. So, where we feel the actual price is out by a certain %age, it becomes a bet. It is where the two prices (ours and the book) prices are close to the buffer we say 'only at x.xx price or more." We record closing lines for the P&L, but say if the minimum price was there all afternoon, we would include it as it would be achievable.

Yesterday was a great example. Peterborough had already been backed in, and was 10/11 when we posted. The Evens marker never came close. Lincoln did hover just under the 2.4 mark on Betfair all afternoon however. It can be the case that some books choose to take it on, sometimes they will not. I monitor the prices from the post to KO because I am sometimes waiting for prices and so forth. Lincoln for a small period of time hit the 2.4 mark at Betfair, but there wasn't much money in the market, and it was not there long enough, before it got taken back in. In this situation I WOULD factor in the comm on Betfair, but this decision can be purely up to you.

I appreciate it becomes very annoying and frustrating when we put winning bets up which do not reach said price, especially when the football is not doing as well as we would like. Those two winners would have helped immensely. But the price is set like that for a reason I am afraid.

I hope this helps, Cheers