Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Royal Ascot Day 1 - Post II

Right, a bit of a dilemma thrown up today, I shall explain. I have been looking back at the tracking bets and those who follow this blog understand we work through believing in a number of set filters agreeing together. This consensual approach, we believe, strengthens the filters in their own right, thus providing us with stronger results over the long term. The tracking bets work in the same way - they are two new filters/sub systems which when we add into the mix form agreements, and these become the 'tracking bets'. As you will see from the results so far, these have not been as desired. Although, in their own individual right, they are providing good returns, unfortunately, these have not been when they have provided this consensus.

That is the dilemma, and it has been exaggerated today by the bets it has thrown up, especially considering the prices involved. We rarely ever get massive prices, so where we do, I am always inclined to like it (although i end up liking every bet!) I am loath to start advising betting these, I do not want to chop and change things, but looking back at the results, and seeing how they have performed it has been in the back of my mind for a while, to start backing them, as I do 100% believe in our consensual approach, and with profitable filters, it is only a matter of time before they start making money the way we do it, right? This, coupled with the performance of the said filters at Ascot as a race course too, really nibbles at my mindset.

Anyhow, I have come to the decision of this, it would be extremely unprofessional of me, I feel, to change the approach now, based on a 40/1 and 50/1 shot. I am going to keep them as tracking bets for the purpose of the blog and the P&L. I simply need to do more analysis and data on them first, as I have only been really monitoring results for not such a long period of time. Personally though, I will be backing them for 1/2 unit stake during Royal Ascot. If you choose to, then good luck. I will ensure that each day, the tracking bets will be kept separate from the system bets, so you can make your own minds up.

Below are the tracking bets and advice for the purpose of the tracking bet P&L.

3.05 Secret Asset @ 50/1 (1pt EW, top 4 1/4 odds)
3.05 Whizz Kid @ 11/2 (1pt win)

4.25 Master Of War @ 40/1 (1pt EW top 4 1/4 odds)
4.25 Sir Prancealot @ 7/2 (1pt win)

5.00 Veiled @ 12/1 (1pt win)

Thanks a lot for your patience in getting everything out today - any questions please feel free to contact us. Good luck today, and enjoy.

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