The Grand National & More

Afternoon all,

As promised, this blog is going to be resurrected, and there is no better time to come back to try and 'pick' the winner of one of the toughest races out there - The Grand National.

It is fair to say this race divides opinion. Some hate it, based upon the 'lottery' factor, the belief the race endangers the runners and riders and therefore is entirely unnecessary. Others, love it, because of the spectacle, the tradition, it being arguably the greatest jumps race of all time.

It is a difficult one for myself. I love horse racing, and although the frequency of this blog is no longer daily, it has not stopped me watching and retaining an interest. I admit I hate seeing the horse racing shoot itself in the foot, I was furious last year with Synchronised running so soon after a gruelling Gold Cup run AND seeing his attitude before the race. That, in my mind, was really poor of connections to run that horse. Fortunately though, the majority of horses are incredibly well treated, and run only when 100% correct. What is the biggest frustration however me is the bandwagon jumpers - the BBC's coverage has been crinimal this year detailing the two tragic deaths already at this year's meeting with such sensationalist headlines and it making prime-time news.

Anyhow, the only reason why I stopped posting bets was because I could no longer afford the time and the dedication as before, which would have only seen results and quality fall. However, being away from this aspect, and 'watching' Cheltenham reinvigorated my passion to get more involved, and commit more time as my hobby to it. The way the bets were previously generated were through a complex consensus based approach, utilising trends, data and so on to find areas of agreement on horses in a race. Because that requires a load of work, and on a daily basis this approach has diminished. Instead, I will still try and harness the much stronger 'filters' that I still monitor, and use personal opinion, to hopefully generate some success. My intentions are to make this blog more personable as well and without clogging up too much space writing now I will get onto the race.

We have good ground, but a couple of interesting factors, being the updated/modernised fences. I break down this race by the two big opinions - people who believe staying is key and people who believe jumping is the overriding factor. Sitting on the fence, both are key, but I would certainly lean to those staying the extremely testing distance. Obviously it is a combination of both, with horses who can settle and get into a rhythm early on the ones I favour. Horses who get caught up need to be lucky to not get affected by other horses, and this is a race where class certainly comes to the for. Thrown in with the filters, I have a couple of really strong bets for this:

Teaforthree has seen positive market support and there is a lot to justify this for myself. The stable is in form, he has got 4 miles already and looks off a winnable weight. If he gets the breaks can go very very well.
3pts EW @ 12/1 Betvictor (6 places)

Roberto Goldback looks very backable at a good price. The ground has come to favour him after a winter of conditions which may have tried to justify this price. It appears this has been a big target for him and what he requires seems to have gone his way. His race profile looks good with regard to the weight he carries and does have the class to boot.
1pt EW @ 20/1 Betvictor (6 places)

Baltahazar King is a horse who I think will really like this course as well, and with proven pedigree over jumps and the requirement to stay when pressed hard. Interestingly enough, the withdrawal from Cheltenha this year on ground concerns means he will be ideally fresh, and now with the desired ground, he looks another one to back at a very good price. He has impressed at Cheltenham in the past which I like as proof of solid jumping. Looks primed to go close here.
1pt EW @ 16/1 Betvictor (6 places)

Cappa Bleu is my final bet (although I could have a couple more) and despite getting on a bit in terms of age, I do not think will reflect this. He has National experience, which is certainly a positive factor based on how he ran, looking like the race suited. If things go his way, and with him proving he can stay by running on well last time here there is nothing to suggest he can get over the line first. Also proved jumping is not an issue with wins at Cheltenham and he certainly has been geared up for this.
2pts EW @ 11/1 BetVictor (6 places)

Best of luck to you all!