I will start by concluding last week's bets, which were quite kind to us :)
Advice:
2pts Fulham/Reading under 2.5goals = Loser, -2pts
1pt Reading +0.5 @ 2.25 = Winner, +1.25
3pts WBA/Wigan over 3 goals @ 2.26 = Winner, +3.78pts
1pt Wigan win @ closing line (3.2) = Winner, +2.2pts
1.5pts West Ham = Loser, -1.5pts
On the weekend we returned a +3.73pt profit on selections.
My aim this weekend was to write a blog on Fergie, and the possible future of Man United, and also after Wigan yesterday try and shed some light on what that result means for both. I haven't quite got the time, so I will post something up in the week.
I have had a look at the this weekend and a couple of bets for me.
I won't probably hit the post button in time before kick-off, but I just can not be with Spurs in their opening kick-off. I know I advised backing them a couple of weeks back (but that was purely a price thing). They are 5/6 jollies away to Stoke, who have started to find a hint of form and resolve to halt their freefall. Spurs though, despite an odd performance mid-week (Chelsea's fatigue was the major factor for me) they just seem quite predictable, except Bale, going forward. Stoke on the asian handicap for me, +0.5 @ 2.18 would be the advice, for 2pts.
Everton vs West Ham is another interesting game, especially with the David Moyes situation. I would have this as a nailed on unders game, and I am a little perplexed as to why under 2.5 goals is the price it is. West Ham are not your biggest scorers, with just 8 goals in their last 9 games (3 blanks in that period) and 6 in this period would have fallen in the under 2.5 category. The only ones not to saw a 2-1 defeat to City, with a huge error by Hart late on, and in games against Man Utd (2-2) and WBA at home. They have also only scored 4 goals on the road in their last 6 away games. Everton are also considerably goal-shy, scoring once in their last 4 games, and 7 of their last 8 seeing under 2.5 weighed in. I know we have the Moyes factor with it being his last home match as manager, but even still, each have not a lot to play for, and I can not see Allardyce switching to a 'care-free' approach, despite both with not too much to play for.
Advice:
1.5 pts under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 188bet
Fulham-Liverpool is one I want to swerve completely right now, I can't really see to much on the match odds or goal markets to be sure on. Liverpool are without Gerrard, and I reckon both will come with a freedom to play. If that is the case, I expect Liverpool to show their quality, but if they are not, Fulham can do something here. The goal line looks fine to me, I won't be advising Liverpool at odds-against, and I haven't got the time to really look into any specials. I did think that if Gerrard was out, than Shelvey is likely to replace him, but there are no juicy prices for anytime goalscorer out there really. No bet.
Norwich-WBA is another interesting one. Norwich are completely rank in my opinion, and while this is a game they must get something from, all does not appear well there. With Grant Holt coming out this morning and criticising Hughton's tactics, they were outplayed by a resurgent Villa, they look shot. WBA on the other hand appear to be playing with a freedom, and they were unlucky not to get anything midweek against City. Steve Clarke has done a fantastic job with getting them to continually play with desire, despite no real need to at this part of the season. Away win for me.
Advice:
2pts on WBA @ 3.33 Pinnacle
QPR-Newcastle is something I can not get stuck into either, despite it being a must-win for the Toon. The only grip I can get on both these sides is that I really do not like them, and they are not very good. I would expect Newcastle to have a go as they must, but I am not too sure I can rely on QPR turning up to suggest goals or anything. No bet.
Sunderland-Southampton is also a tricky one for me. I know everyone seems to love the Di Canio sideshow, and while it is quite funny, I think it has still detracted from Sunderland's results a bit. Ok, they won well on the counter-attack away to Newcastle, and got a good result at home to Everton, but I do not remain convinced. Southampton though remain a team I do like, and although they are not safe, I think they will win today and confirm their PL status next time out. They were undone by another Bale show last week, but they didn't deserve defeat. They look organised, keep the football well, and will not allow Sunderland to catch them on the break. I think match up pits high-energy 'rush' football vs 'organised possession football' and I think Southampton can take the sting out of Sunderland, keep it tight and frustrate them, before growing into the game. I find it very interesting that the market takes this view too, making Southampton favourites, going against goals (again I agree) which is why my points advised remains low.
Advice:
1pt Southampton to win @ 2.72 Pinnacle
Finally on the card today is Fergie's final game at Old Trafford, vs a Swansea side coming off the back of an entertaining win in midweek against Wigan. I have a few thoughts on Man Utd and where they go from here, but for the purpose of the post I will stick to the match odds. I had a thought earlier in the week that motivation factors will probably find their way creeping into how bookmakers price up teams at this stage of the season. My belief was that they would have factored this now into the odds upon the Fergie retirement news. My initial thought was that at 1/3 United were too short, and I would usually have them probably at 4/9 based on 'usual' indicators. Then I tried to weigh in how much the motivational factors may have been played up. This morning, United find themselves at 1.4. I happen to think this is too big of a price for them today. Swansea have been coasting along recently, and were at times outplayed by Wigan. Every Swansea goal came was effectively gifted by shoddy Wigan defending. I personally think based on all factors, United should arguably around the 1/4 mark for this match. I genuinely feel they have no other reason than to go 'gung-ho' for this. While I would never normally back United at this price, in terms of prices, I can not let them go un-backed, despite the price. I also like goals as said, and feel as a saver, Swansea if they turn up and United play as open as I think, Swansea can certainly contribute to this game. I would be looking for some bonkers score-lines for a small plays and some 'overs' on the goal lines.
1pt Man U @ 1.4 188bet
1pt over 3.5 goals @ 2.63
0.5pts over 4.5 goals @ 5.00
0.5pts over 5.5 goals @ 11.00
0.1pt Man U 3-0 @ 11.5
0.1pt Man U 3-1 @ 12.00
0.1pt Man U 4-0 @ 21.00
0.1pt Man U 4-1 @ 22.00
0.1pt Man U 5-0 @ 46.00
0.1pt Man U 5-1 @ 51.00
0.1pt Man U 6-0 @ 126.00
0.1pt Man U 6-1 @ 126.00
(Total of 3.8pts invested on the game)
Final advice = 0.2pts WBA/Soton/Man U to win @ 12.29 Paddy Power.
Best of luck whatever you do today!
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