A really interesting week of football behind on and off the field this week. I have my thoughts on each...
Suarez: Love him or loath him, there can be no denying that the bite on Ivanovic was just quite disturbing. I sat there watching the game live thinking 'what are you doing'? Just as some of the critics were going away, he goes and does that. I do believe that there is no malice intent behind what he does, it is purely a natural instinct, akin to a guy who is quite willing to push the boundaries to gain any edge. You can not pre-meditate that sort of activity on a football field, surely? That said, it can not be used as an excuse, and Suarez simply has to learn to go to the boundary edge but not cross it. It won't take anything away from him as player as he remains a world-class talent, and arguably the only one Liverpool currently have. However, I do also have to confess I was completely stunned with the 10-game ban. You have to laugh. I am sure those interested have read the mainstream articles from journalists and there are a few that hit the nail completely on the head. I also listened to Brendan Rodger's interview today and there are definitely elements of truth, I feel, in what he said. The whole thing has been completely blown out of proportion by the media, and I think the whimsical nature of the FA has tried to respond to public outcry (what is David Cameron doing commenting on this by the way?) and tried to appear strong willed and ruled with an iron-fist. It has just if anything purely pointed out all their weaknesses and highlighted all what is wrong the FA. The sanction goes down as one of the longest issued by the FA, but if you look at the other incidents which have warranted a 'special' ban, this incident pales in comparison. I know he was charged and accepted 'violent conduct' but going on the injury sustained, but also the potential injury which could have occurred, for me you are stretching the definition of 'violent'. Furthermore, it appears as if the FA have failed to really take into account the immediate aftermath of the game, the apologies and remorse, but arguably the worst is failing to see the bigger picture here. For me, they have to act on previous (regardless of rule changes) because it is a rather strange situation, but at the same time they can not just increase the Dutch FA's ruling to suit (a completely independent body with different rules anyway). You do really get the feeling that the man has been punished because of his name, rather than on the merits of the episode. I completely acknowledge they have to factor in his previous, but does a Judge condemn a repeat offender of affray to a punishment fit for an assault? No, they do not, they just give a slightly harsher sentence than usual, but one which still fits the crime, whilst reflecting the previous. In my opinion, 4 or 5 games would have sufficed, with perhaps a suspended sentence to act as the bigger deterrent. All this punishment has done, is look a bit silly in my eyes, with everyone, apart from the ludicrous Jeff Powell of the Daily Mail, in shock at the severity. Aside from this, something I will not go into, is how much the FA just look entirely flawed, from root to branch with regards to their punishment system, this 'exceptional circumstance' rule and so on. A lot needs to change, and really, right now, the real loser is English football.
Continuing on the 'losing' theme is Spanish football. They have had it bad haven't they! Yes, a bad week for sure, but to label Spanish football as on the wane, and the era of tiki-taka over is completely premature. Put it this way, I am sure Man Utd and Man City would trade places with Barca and Madrid right now. They both just came into two teams at their peak. Dortmund less so, but they are certainly a side who have learnt well from their Champions League exploits last year, and focused their efforts on it this year. They play fluid football, direct with energy and speed, pretty much how Real Madrid usually play. Dortmund were just better, and in Lewandowski, they have a striker well on form. What is interesting to note is that this is Mourinho's third year at Madrid (he never lasts more than three years) and you get the feeling him and the team know this is it anyway after this year. You get the impression almost that team and coach gave everything wrestling away Barca's League dominance last year and the in-fighting and politics have taken over now that was successful?
Barcelona on the other hand, in hindsight, should not have fielded an unfit Leo Messi, but that said, while I will not go as far and say the scoreline flattered Bayern, it wasn't as comprehensive as you may think. I thought Barca began to start controlling the game in the second half once the waterlogged pitch dried out. They didn't rarely threaten, but they exerted control on the game in the way they usually wear teams down. For Bayern, this was their Final, and they got the fortunate breaks with the second and third goals. I can see how the second goal can go for them with it being a tight offside, but the third was as blatant as they come and should have been ruled out. We have seen Barca do this before, and scoring late is a feature of their style, they treat the 89th minute the same as the 2nd. However, with a couple of decisions going against them, and the two best chances falling to their young centre-back Marta, everything went against them. It happens, and they will be hurt. But do not go telling me possession football is not key any more. It really is. Just sometimes angles and positions do not open up for you, and you need to maintain the tempo required to make it work. Make no mistake though, this Barca side will now look vulnerable to a few, and it will be fascinating to see if teams try and go for them a bit more now...
Also, anyone else not a little frustrated that the two ties are not a bit more evenly balanced going into the second leg?
Moving forward, I have spotted some prices which I think are out of line and worthy of our money this weekend, and I am advising a double.
Wigan vs SPURS. I have Spurs here odds on, not 11/10 against, and I can not quite think why. It was by no means a good performance by Spurs last week, despite the result, but I think sometimes those results impact in the longer run. It also puts them bang slap in the race for 3rd or 4th and this game takes on extra meaning for them. For Wigan, they are impossible to call, but based on the Spurs price I am happy to take the chance they are poor again. Their home form is not great by any stretch, and they will view future games against WBA, Swansea and Villa in the category of 'likely to get something'. They also have the Cup Final. Spurs also have Bale and Defoe back, and I think come kick-off 11/10 will be long gone.
Newcastle vs LIVERPOOL. Now, ignoring all the hurrah around Liverpool and Suarez, 6/4 looks a mightily large price to me for an away victory. With Suarez, you could make a case for them being a shade odds-on, but even without, and Sturridge as the 'back-up' they should arguably only be a shade odds against. My immediate thoughts were 6/5-5/4, which is why I have to like the 6/4 quotes. Newcastle are in a scrap, and have been taken apart at will by teams this year. Cisse remains a threat, but Tiote and Cabaye are not dominating as they did last year. Sunderland counter-attacked very well here last time out, and West Brom knocked and knocked on the door last week but couldn't find the goal. Newcastle are out of form. Liverpool on the other hand had an excellent second half against Chelsea, and I think they can certainly rally together this week with all the off-field antics going on. They can out-pass Newcastle if they chose, but I think they could decide to set up a bit more on the counter, like Sunderland did, and with pace in their likely forward three (Coutinho, Sturridge and Downing) they will cause Newcastle problems.
2pts double on Spurs and Liverpool @ Victor Chandler @ 5.0225. (Bigger single prices available on Betfair)
Best of luck this week!
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