So today is my sort of day! The Prem returns and we have no fewer than 7 of the games that have odds-on favourites in - let's try and pick out some bets!
Newcastle - Liverpool is the game first up at 12:45, and for me it is one to watch. As you know, I am not a big odds-on backer of Liverpool, and although they won last time out, with a comfortable scoreline, the reality of their match against Palace was that Liverpool conceded possession and chances far too regularly. Often enough, Palace broke in behind the Lucas-Gerrard axis (which really isn't good enough for me as a '2') and created many one-on-one and two-on-one situations. A better side finishes those positions and Rodgers admitted he was not too happy with the performance. Liverpool will get stung this season and stung heavily, unless they can rapidly improve their ball control to the levels of last year. It is hard to criticise too much because they are joint-top, but their conversion stats are way up on last year and you think will settle to a 'normal' rate soon enough.
Arsenal - Norwich is also a game usually right up my street, and Norwich have found a bit of form lately. They gave Chelsea a good run for their money in the 2nd half last time out, following on from a good away to Stoke. Arsenal themselves have been flying, and they showed a resilience to their game with the point away at WBA, proving they may not be the soft touch. I expect the majority of the game to played as everyone will do, and it will be a good test for Arsenal to try and break down a side who will be disciplined and rigid - flood the middle where Arsenal are strongest with no Walcott/Podolski and ask Arsenal to break them down. Fortunately for Arsenal, Norwich aren't the quickest on the break, with Redmond dropping out of the side recently. Still though, I can see it being tight enough and a real good test of Arsenal's patience and handling of expectation.
0.5pts Norwich +1.5 goals @ 2.03 SBO Bet
Chelsea - Cardiff is also a massive away dog coming up against a side who really probably have not clicked as people expected. Jose is probably finding things a little different this time around. I can't see Cardiff winning, but I can see them trying to really get up into Chelsea, working hard, closing the space and trying to frustrate, and with it being Chelsea, regardless of the opposition they won't always be going gung-ho, despite what Jose says. They are in a bit of a transition and I expect him to revert to type.
0.5pts Cardiff +1.5 goals @ 2.16 188bet
0.5pts U2.5goals @ 11/8 Boylesports
Man Utd vs Soton is also another one which fascinates me, especially because I think Soton are a side Utd will not like to play against. Soton can keep the ball very well, and there will be minimal pressure on them here, meaning they can play with freedom in terms of ball retention, but can be tactically very solid. Old Trafford will still be a tough place to go, and teams I expect to perform there could easily be affected by the occasion, but this Soton side should not be, considering their form and the fact they recently went to Anfield and won comfortably. The price has gone on them a bit, but I think Utd look real short, especially with doubts over RVP's fitness. Utd, to their credit played very well against Sunderland, but could have found themselves 2 down before Januzaj popped up with two very different but very good goals. He will give them a lift, and how he reacts to the expectation will be fascinating.
0.5.pts Soton @ 11/2 Bet365
Swansea-Sunderland is an interesting proposition, with Sunderland playing fairly well but not getting any result. The arrival of Poyet is make or break really for them, and they need to start picking up wins, having only got one point this season. Swansea are now expected to win these games, but Sunderland should be massively hyped for this one, and I am hoping for Swansea to have one eye on the Europa League...
0.5pts Sunderland @ 6.81 Pinnacle
West Ham - City would be the typical big priced home dog, but I just can't call City with much confidence at the minute. I thought my read on their last game was good - Everton started well, but soon turned sloppy and Man City improved. No bet.
Small bets today because of the volume, and because of the international break. Whatever you do - good luck!
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